What 50,000+ transfers taught us about flight delays

You can't plan around delays — but you can plan with the patterns. Here is what a decade of dispatching has taught us about when AYT runs late.

Morning arrivals run more on-time than evening

Flights landing 04:00-09:00 are on-time 91% of the time within 15 minutes. By 19:00-23:00 that drops to 74% — accumulated delay cascades across the day.

Charter vs scheduled

Scheduled IATA carriers (Lufthansa, Pegasus, Aeroflot, etc.) are 12% more on-time than charter operators on the same route. Charter delays cluster on Tuesday and Saturday turn-around days.

The 50-minute rule

A delay shorter than 50 minutes rarely affects passport queue length — the gate spread absorbs it. A delay over 50 minutes synchronises three arrivals and adds 15-25 minutes at passport control.

What this means for the driver

We start tracking your flight 4 hours before scheduled arrival. If the system shows >20 minutes delay we re-time the pickup. You will never see the difference — the only signal is the driver is there when you walk out.